SCEC Natural Laboratory

The CSEP Testing Center at SCEC currently runs earthquake forecasts for the California Region. The region under test is shown in the figure below:

In all current CSEP Earthquake forecasts, the region under evaluation (California) is divided up into many small geographical boxes, or bin. Each forecast currently under evaluation then predicts where (in which bins) and when earthquakes will occur. Correctly predicting the location and time of an earthquake increases the evaluation score for a forecast.

Forecasts are evaluated by comparing them against the California earthquakes that are reported in the ANSS Earthquake Catalog.